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Just posted a new article analyzing Aston Martin's 1st Half 2022 results.


They are pretty shocking and worse than expected.

Comments on the analysis?

Will they make it?
 

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Man it looks rough. The need $1b just to float another year. Their weird ship but not deliver Valkyrie gambit, not sure that’s enough to get cash flow to help. Even if they deliver 50 cars a year, what does that bring in, $100MM? Would the UK govt step in and bail them out?
 

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Discussion Starter · #3 ·
Man it looks rough. The need $1b just to float another year. Their weird ship but not deliver Valkyrie gambit, not sure that’s enough to get cash flow to help. Even if they deliver 50 cars a year, what does that bring in, $100MM? Would the UK govt step in and bail them out?
I cant see the UK government bailing them out. They certainly didn't the other 7 times AML went bankrupt.
 

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I don't know enough to add to the discussion but I just want to say I always enjoy reading your articles a lot. They are very informative and your writing makes them easy to understand even it's a new subject for me.

I wonder when the Spider version of the Valkeryie will be ready if they are having these major problems with the regular version and what the conquences of an eventual delay are. I heard a customer is expecting their Spider to be produced Q1 2023. That seems quite optimistic though.
 

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Just posted a new article analyzing Aston Martin's 1st Half 2022 results.


They are pretty shocking and worse than expected.

Comments on the analysis?

Will they make it?
honestly, I don’t know why anyone does business with these nincompoops anymore. They aren’t paying their partners, they are getting sued by multiple groups for breach of contract, and they are clearly unable to keep the lights on much longer. When the music stops, a lot of people aren’t EVER getting paid.

I don’t know what Aston offers that wouldn’t be better acquired by being forced into bankruptcy and having the assets picked up afterwards without the debt.
 

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honestly, I don’t know why anyone does business with these nincompoops anymore. They aren’t paying their partners, they are getting sued by multiple groups for breach of contract, and they are clearly unable to keep the lights on much longer. When the music stops, a lot of people aren’t EVER getting paid.

I don’t know what Aston offers that wouldn’t be better acquired by being forced into bankruptcy and having the assets picked up afterwards without the debt.
There is a local guy who is big on IG. Has a bunch of photos/videos about his journey on ordering a Valkyrie. Is also in the process of having Aston custom make a bespoke car for him.

I keep thinking his cars will never come to fruition and I hope he hasn’t sunk A bunch of money as deposits.
 

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Just posted a new article analyzing Aston Martin's 1st Half 2022 results.


They are pretty shocking and worse than expected.

Comments on the analysis?

Will they make it?
So are you saying that making and selling cars has become harder to do than making and selling t-shirts?
Wow! Who would have expected that?
Glasses Vision care Sleeve Pink Audio equipment
 

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honestly, I don’t know why anyone does business with these nincompoops anymore. They aren’t paying their partners, they are getting sued by multiple groups for breach of contract, and they are clearly unable to keep the lights on much longer. When the music stops, a lot of people aren’t EVER getting paid.

I don’t know what Aston offers that wouldn’t be better acquired by being forced into bankruptcy and having the assets picked up afterwards without the debt.
what you say equally applies and certainly applied to McLaren.

am sure you’re well aware of the three calipers per car set from brembo… same issue.

the reality is Porsche and Ferrari seem to be able to manage their business profitably. The rest for various reasons some the same some different are in a permanent state of ‘not needing fresh capital.‘
 

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what you say equally applies and certainly applied to McLaren.

am sure you’re well aware of the three calipers per car set from brembo… same issue.

the reality is Porsche and Ferrari seem to be able to manage their business profitably. The rest for various reasons some the same some different are in a permanent state of ‘not needing fresh capital.‘
Both Porsche and Ferrari are owned by multinationals, n'est pas?
 

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what you say equally applies and certainly applied to McLaren.

am sure you’re well aware of the three calipers per car set from brembo… same issue.

the reality is Porsche and Ferrari seem to be able to manage their business profitably. The rest for various reasons some the same some different are in a permanent state of ‘not needing fresh capital.‘
McLaren is struggling with profitability but nothing like this. Suppliers are getting paid, they aren’t desperately breaking contracts to save money, their business isn’t depending on loans from customers for vaporware, and they have enough capital to operate for a couple years. McLaren may or may not make it long term, they did face this head on in 2020 in some pretty reasonable ways with sales and restructuring.

Porsche wasn’t always owned by VW, and it too had violent ups and downs before the boxster and SUVs. And of course Ferrari had to sell itself at one point. The high end sports car market just isn’t that large. Ferrari has made it work by basically becoming a luxury good, and Porsche by mass producing SUVs.
 

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what you say equally applies and certainly applied to McLaren.

am sure you’re well aware of the three calipers per car set from brembo… same issue.

the reality is Porsche and Ferrari seem to be able to manage their business profitably. The rest for various reasons some the same some different are in a permanent state of ‘not needing fresh capital.‘
An important difference between McLaren and Porsche, Fezza and Aston is that, by the time that McLaren started to build its first production road car, all three of the others had already been building production road cars for at least 60 years. This gave those three a huge advantage over McLaren in established sales network, established service network, established customer base, and - presumably - in knowing how to build cars.
I say 'presumably' because I think it has been obvious for many years that Aston do not know how to build cars (at least not cars good enough for the prices charged).
For a long time Aston has been a complete shitshow, all fluff and very little stuff. If you were to take exactly the same organisation with the same products but have it based in, say, Poland or Thailand, or pretty much anywhere except the UK, it would not enjoy the halo of coming from Merrie Olde England and having featured in a few spy films, and it would have ceased to exist after one of its previous bankruptcies, rather than after the next one.
 

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McLaren is struggling with profitability but nothing like this. Suppliers are getting paid, they aren’t desperately breaking contracts to save money, their business isn’t depending on loans from customers for vaporware, and they have enough capital to operate for a couple years. McLaren may or may not make it long term, they did face this head on in 2020 in some pretty reasonable ways with sales and restructuring.

Porsche wasn’t always owned by VW, and it too had violent ups and downs before the boxster and SUVs. And of course Ferrari had to sell itself at one point. The high end sports car market just isn’t that large. Ferrari has made it work by basically becoming a luxury good, and Porsche by mass producing SUVs.
incorrect.
for a very long time suppliers were not paid. Speedtail owners were offered discounts for early payment. Sound familiar ? brembo refused to supply due to unpaid invoices. When the outstandings were partially paid, supply was restarted but with car sets being three calipers not four.

the point is that super car manufacturer, particularly independant ones have struggled badly. McLaren was as badly run as Aston is now. Whilst I would agree that what is going on at Aston is truly beyond belief, the same could have been said of McLaren

i personally dont care if Aston eventually goes bust again. But McLaren would sadden me a great deal as it’s potential was always in my view, so much more. It does at least seem to be heading on a more sustainable path now but it needlessly headed down a path that anyone could see wasn’t going to work. Much like Aston now
 

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An important difference between McLaren and Porsche, Fezza and Aston is that, by the time that McLaren started to build its first production road car, all three of the others had already been building production road cars for at least 60 years. This gave those three a huge advantage over McLaren in established sales network, established service network, established customer base, and - presumably - in knowing how to build cars.
I say 'presumably' because I think it has been obvious for many years that Aston do not know how to build cars (at least not cars good enough for the prices charged).
For a long time Aston has been a complete shitshow, all fluff and very little stuff. If you were to take exactly the same organisation with the same products but have it based in, say, Poland or Thailand, or pretty much anywhere except the UK, it would not enjoy the halo of coming from Merrie Olde England and having featured in a few spy films, and it would have ceased to exist after one of its previous bankruptcies, rather than after the next one.
yes completely agree. For the early years mclaren was making exceptional progress. It had talented engineers, designers, a brand and a factory that were truly unique. Sadly some poor executive choices led to almost all of the things that made the company exceptional leaving. It will struggle to recapture those things or people that were the very essence of what McLaren was.
 
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