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The problem with the first gen hypercars is as you had mentioned the battery cost are pretty crazy and they are all nearing that time or they probably will need replacement someone soon. Which will be a good chunk of change.
 

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Another great read, Boxer!

I look forward to seeing your post that a new SSO article is up & ready for perusal! Thank you...
 

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Discussion Starter #5
Really great article Boxer. These are treacherous waters for "investors" so you better love this stuff.
Thanks and this is why you should always by the car you love and enjoy it.

Another great read, Boxer!

I look forward to seeing your post that a new SSO article is up & ready for perusal! Thank you...
Much appreciated.
 

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Another great post boxer, I think the current situation is impacted by three main paradigms:

1. Technology (as you say)
2. Demographics/Generational
3. Supply/Demand

Won't spend much time on tech, as I basically agree with your assertions. Although, I would place slightly less emphasis on tech, as a reason for the current softening market.

Demographics/Generational factors:

I feel as though there is a natural 25-35 year cycle for supercar desirability. The poster on the teenage boy/girl's wall becomes the object of desire and nostalgia once one has enough cash to buy, etc. In between then, many classics go through periods where they are cheap and not really valued. What is interesting is that this is still a very recent phenomenon; supercars haven't existing for very long in the grand scheme of things. Does somebody in their mid-40's today remember what supercar came before the Countach, Testarossa or whatever poster was on their bedroom wall (remember "Justification for Higher Education")? Moreover, do they care? Will McLaren F1's still be valuable when the high net worth population doesn't even know what it is? I suppose that has ramifications for our heirs, not us.

Supply/Demand:

Damn, a lot of exotic and sports cars were pumped out in the last decade. Rather than placing blame, I prefer to think of it as just a reality and natural consequence of any market bubble. But umpteen special editions of basically the same car (maybe Lambo and Porsche started it, but Mac took it to another level). Emerging markets like China and high stock markets providing the fuel for the frenzy, of course. But as the cliche goes, a rising tide floats all boats and vice versa. So even Enzo prices will retreat. Still, I wonder if the soft supercar market is a harbinger. I remember seeing F40s at CAD $400K asking, during the financial crisis. I passed up a Carrera GT for CAD $325K. Doh!

The holy trinity are unique in that they are truly hybrids, not only in powertrain design but they mix, or span, the two underlying eras of the automobile. Before EVs and after EVs. Does that make them more, or less relevant in the long term? I don't know. I could make an argument either way. But the P1's battery replacement costs are a problem, I agree.
 

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Discussion Starter #7 (Edited)
Another great post boxer, I think the current situation is impacted by three main paradigms:

1. Technology (as you say)
2. Demographics/Generational
3. Supply/Demand

Won't spend much time on tech, as I basically agree with your assertions. Although, I would place slightly less emphasis on tech, as a reason for the current softening market.

Demographics/Generational factors:

I feel as though there is a natural 25-35 year cycle for supercar desirability. The poster on the teenage boy/girl's wall becomes the object of desire and nostalgia once one has enough cash to buy, etc. In between then, many classics go through periods where they are cheap and not really valued. What is interesting is that this is still a very recent phenomenon; supercars haven't existing for very long in the grand scheme of things. Does somebody in their mid-40's today remember what supercar came before the Countach, Testarossa or whatever poster was on their bedroom wall (remember "Justification for Higher Education")? Moreover, do they care? Will McLaren F1's still be valuable when the high net worth population doesn't even know what it is? I suppose that has ramifications for our heirs, not us.

Supply/Demand:

Damn, a lot of exotic and sports cars were pumped out in the last decade. Rather than placing blame, I prefer to think of it as just a reality and natural consequence of any market bubble. But umpteen special editions of basically the same car (maybe Lambo and Porsche started it, but Mac took it to another level). Emerging markets like China and high stock markets providing the fuel for the frenzy, of course. But as the cliche goes, a rising tide floats all boats and vice versa. So even Enzo prices will retreat. Still, I wonder if the soft supercar market is a harbinger. I remember seeing F40s at CAD $400K asking, during the financial crisis. I passed up a Carrera GT for CAD $325K. Doh!

The holy trinity are unique in that they are truly hybrids, not only in powertrain design but they mix, or span, the two underlying eras of the automobile. Before EVs and after EVs. Does that make them more, or less relevant in the long term? I don't know. I could make an argument either way. But the P1's battery replacement costs are a problem, I agree.

The point on demographics is a really interesting one. 20 years form now will the early Teslas be the in in thing to collect for that generation?
 

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The point on demographics is a really interesting one. 20 years form now will the early Teslas be the in in thing to collect for that generation?
Could well be. Although if self titled marketing gurus are to be believed, they won't really be into collecting things, but still seeking out "experiences". I don't believe the gurus; I think once social media is no longer "a thing", we'll realize that they are no different than any other generation.

I could see a sub-culture of people that collect early teslas the same way that some people collect 1st gen iphones or old-school typewriters, though... :)

Do young kids really have Tesla posters on their wall? I guess now it is phone screen savers/background images. i.e. a picture of an iPad on their iPad... hah!
 

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Discussion Starter #9
Could well be. Although if self titled marketing gurus are to be believed, they won't really be into collecting things, but still seeking out "experiences". I don't believe the gurus; I think once social media is no longer "a thing", we'll realize that they are no different than any other generation.

I could see a sub-culture of people that collect early teslas the same way that some people collect 1st gen iphones or old-school typewriters, though... :)

Do young kids really have Tesla posters on their wall? I guess now it is phone screen savers/background images. i.e. a picture of an iPad on their iPad... hah!
I do believe the ‘hunter’ ‘gather’ instinct is hard wired into all of us. Once they are done ‘hunting’ experiences they will start gather collectibles/assets.

....it’s actually a picture of their iPhone on the iPad with an Xbox in the background
 

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Sounds like you took your gathered collectible and hunted an experience 0:)
I like to think I always had the experience in mind!

I wonder if cars of any kind will simply cease being collectible. Does anybody still collect postage stamps? Or coins?
 

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A big part of the problem with the recent generation of supercars/hypercars is that they are mostly about the latest technology, and the latest technology ages very quickly. The cars with substantial appreciation potential are in that position because they have a place in history, they are beautiful, and/or they can be stretched and can challenge their drivers somewhere other than on a racing track.
Buying the latest thing merely because it is the latest thing has always been a loser's game, and always will be.
 

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Discussion Starter #16
A big part of the problem with the recent generation of supercars/hypercars is that they are mostly about the latest technology, and the latest technology ages very quickly. The cars with substantial appreciation potential are in that position because they have a place in history, they are beautiful, and/or they can be stretched and can challenge their drivers somewhere other than on a racing track.
Buying the latest thing merely because it is the latest thing has always been a loser's game, and always will be.
Very much aligned with your position.
 

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A big part of the problem with the recent generation of supercars/hypercars is that they are mostly about the latest technology, and the latest technology ages very quickly. The cars with substantial appreciation potential are in that position because they have a place in history, they are beautiful, and/or they can be stretched and can challenge their drivers somewhere other than on a racing track.
Buying the latest thing merely because it is the latest thing has always been a loser's game, and always will be.
A 959 is still quite a collectible car now (albeit primarily due to production numbers) though. And imo the 959 and 918 will be collectibles amongst the Porsches in the way the cgt will not as the cgt is too much of a one off that had zero relevance to the rest of the cars and had nothing that trickled down to the rest of the range.
 

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A 959 is still quite a collectible car now (albeit primarily due to production numbers) though. And imo the 959 and 918 will be collectibles amongst the Porsches in the way the cgt will not as the cgt is too much of a one off that had zero relevance to the rest of the cars and had nothing that trickled down to the rest of the range.
The 959 has become a collectible because of its unique place in history (as you say, enhanced by the small production run). It had many features that were firsts for Porsche and in some cases firsts for all production road cars.
Unfortunately many of those firsts did not work too well. For many years I had one of the rare Sport versions and in important ways it was crap (major torque-steer, bad turbo lag, tail-wagging-the-dog effect from the rear, wrong gear ratios, only available tyres are awful, cast magnesium hollow-spoke wheels develop leaks, twenty-five years after it left the factory the interior still reeked of rug adhesive, certain spare parts no longer available but difficult for an independent to replicate). The engine is fantastic, but the rest of the car does not measure up to it. I guess you could say something similar about a 1970 Dodge Charger: quaint as history but not much to drive.
The 918 - maybe, although with new hybrid and BEV technology coming at us thick and fast from multiple manufacturers, my sense is that the 918 (and P1) will be viewed as early increments rather than as singularly path-breaking, and interest in them will tend to wane.
 

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Interesting question about hybrids and where there status will be in the long run. Will they be rare "missing links" assuming everything turns electric?

Personally, I don't want anything to do with hybrids because of the complexity/cost. The only exception might be the current Acura NSX. You can get them for around $125k new, and ultimately, they are a V6 Honda Accord Hybrid variant. Sure bit more complex, and yet, ultimately, a honda. For 125k, it seems like a nice daily flogger. That amazingly gets worse gas mileage than my now quaint and ancient 12C.

Barring that, I'm looking at more pure cars these days. More for my own fun. Ive been yelling about this for a long time, but all our cars are fat porkers. 3200lbs is obese, and yet today, we are so beaten down we hail this as great.

That's why I'm super applauding the return of Gordon Murray and am rooting for him. Straight V12. Manual box. And most importantly, a weight of under 2200lbs!

One wonders why McLaren wouldnt have begged him to do this car under their badge? I also wonder how pleased they are that he is explicitly saying this is the F1 followup and that he may achieve in providing a more proper followup to the F1 than McLaren itself. I wonder if legal action isnt in store at some point? Regardless, I think he's got the real enthusiasts ethos going, and he gets it. Make the best road car humanly possible, GO!
 
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