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Toyota is stupid. They are skating to where the puck is, not where it will be. Have you actually seen a Mirai? It’s stupid. It worse in basically every way from bev, phev or ice. They can’t let go of backing hydrogen. when their ceo talks openly, he hates bev, and that’s the company’s direction. They’ll do the bare minimum. The Lexus supercar doesn’t have a name or release date. It’s all vapor.

By the time Toyota pulls its head out of its ass, it’ll be too late. They’ll source generic stuff from suppliers and make generic bev platforms. The Camry will live on, and Toyota will poop out big numbers. But they aren’t going to win a big slice in the industry restructuring, and they aren’t set to do anything more innovative than asking BMW to design them a sportscar
 

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Toyota is not stupid, they just did the math and know its impossible to go full electric without a fundamental change in batteries so plug ins are the ideal solution for now. But their hand was forced by “environmentalists”
Except they didn't do the math since they barely even sold any decent range plug-ins. The Rav4 Prime didn't come out until like 2020 and there were pretty much zero available anywhere.

Toyota is simply behind because they didn't want to innovate and that the market wouldn't shift so fast. They were wrong.
 

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i dont think it is the financial or tech press driving up the share price of tesla, it is a proper tail wagging the dog with Option buying driving the underlying share price. Option buying in small lots points to only one group of buyers, retail investors... Never known for much fundamental analysis, but they have made a lot of money so far doing it... ;)

and to @sailfly, i think first mover advantage in this case is very significant, and with that i mean the supercharger network.

I give Elon a lot of credit for dragging the rest of the industry towards EVs, and dubious quality issues in the beginning, the way they have ramped up production is truly impressive, especially during 2021
 

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at some point even the corrupt tech press and financial press got tired of their “this is the iPhone killer” clickbait. apparently not so with Tesla. They keep talking to always wrong bob lutz for how Tesla is doomed, and seems his major accomplishment in life was driving gm to bankruptcy. 🙄
LOL. I knew there was a conspiracy here somewhere!
 

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i dont think it is the financial or tech press driving up the share price of tesla, it is a proper tail wagging the dog with Option buying driving the underlying share price. Option buying in small lots points to only one group of buyers, retail investors... Never known for much fundamental analysis, but they have made a lot of money so far doing it... ;)

and to @sailfly, i think first mover advantage in this case is very significant, and with that i mean the supercharger network.

I give Elon a lot of credit for dragging the rest of the industry towards EVs, and dubious quality issues in the beginning, the way they have ramped up production is truly impressive, especially during 2021
I think the value of a proprietary charging network diminishes as the market matures. It is not too inconvenient to own a non-Tesla in China these days. Have you tried out the new Geely sports car wagon thing? My friend speaks quite highly of it.
 

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I think the value of a proprietary charging network diminishes as the market matures. It is not too inconvenient to own a non-Tesla in China these days. Have you tried out the new Geely sports car wagon thing? My friend speaks quite highly of it.
Same on the European continent. Tesla still has an advantage but it is not great anymore. The quality of the other branded cars, mostly interior if we are honest, begins to become more important than any potential benefit of marginally increased availability of fast chargers… particularly when I suspect most journeys are shorter than the max range anyway.

currently on a 450km round trip we have to do two short stops,, if we had access to the Tesla network we could do one stop, albeit longer than either of our two stops, but overall less time charging.

135 to 350kw chargers are common enough on the ionity (and other) networks.
 

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Same on the European continent. Tesla still has an advantage but it is not great anymore. The quality of the other branded cars, mostly interior if we are honest, begins to become more important than any potential benefit of marginally increased availability of fast chargers… particularly when I suspect most journeys are shorter than the max range anyway.

currently on a 450km round trip we have to do two short stops,, if we had access to the Tesla network we could do one stop, albeit longer than either of our two stops, but overall less time charging.

135 to 350kw chargers are common enough on the ionity (and other) networks.
Agree 100% re the interior, esp now that everyone is going towards the slit type headlights. Probably the main reason VW ID sales in China are so dismal. At that price they have so many better options.
 

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Discussion Starter · #990 · (Edited)
LOL. I knew there was a conspiracy here somewhere!
I recently picked up mind reading and read your minds and knew you would say that, respond to everything where you have a weak argument (basically everything) with with a sarcastic pussy passive aggressive laughy'emoji as signifying your failure in sustaining a thought, and that sailfly would join you.
 

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i dont think it is the financial or tech press driving up the share price of tesla, it is a proper tail wagging the dog with Option buying driving the underlying share price. Option buying in small lots points to only one group of buyers, retail investors... Never known for much fundamental analysis, but they have made a lot of money so far doing it... ;)
These retail guys are not all small-time option buyers though ;) eg Leo KoGuan
 

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I think the next 10 years will be much tougher for TSLA than the past 10. The legacy manufacturers will (are) catching up quickly. I think people on 'here' tend to only think about performance. There are many other factors in car buying to the average consumer. The Taycan is far nicer than any TSLA, albeit far more expensive. The new MB concept is pretty intriguing and Ford is already showing their serious desire to develop an EV Truck in the F-150 lightening.

SO...it'll be interesting how things play out going forward because range won't be an issue for 'most' people, prices will come down across the board and charging stations will continue to become more prevalent. SO...what will drive EV sales in the future? I'd think PRICE, QUALITY (reliability) and STYLE...not range and charging stations.

Having said all of that...we are a VERY long ways away from EV becoming 'fully' mainstream. The grid isn't even close to being able to handle it. 1.4B cars on the road and roughly 10M are EV. Not even 1%! Whoa...It's going to take some SERIOUS updating of our grid to handle anything close to even 25%. Petroleum will be the major energy source for the rest of ALL of our lives. Everything you can see with your eyes used petroleum at some point in the production process...

EV has many advantages, but we're not even close to it being truly mainstream for 'most' people...Not everyone is buying a new $30-$50k car...Until the grid is updated and you can find one used for $5k or $10k...there won't ever be more EV's on the road than ICE. Someday there will be...but we're a LONG ways from that.
 

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The grid concerns are melodramatic. It's like freaking out and saying air conditioning could never happen because the poor grid can't handle it. Historically, US electrical grid production has doubled every ~15 years. This requires no new technology, no new ideas, just some profit to justify accelerating capital investment. All super boring.

This is a completely separate concern from removing petroleum from the energy generation side. That is a big challenge, and probably won't be solved in my lifetime, but also one that doesn't have to be solved. Industrial scale energy generation MUCH MUCH more efficient than tiny personal ICE vehicles. Simply nuking coal would be a significant first step.
 

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Discussion Starter · #997 ·
I think the next 10 years will be much tougher for TSLA than the past 10. The legacy manufacturers will (are) catching up quickly. I think people on 'here' tend to only think about performance. There are many other factors in car buying to the average consumer. The Taycan is far nicer than any TSLA, albeit far more expensive. The new MB concept is pretty intriguing and Ford is already showing their serious desire to develop an EV Truck in the F-150 lightening.

SO...it'll be interesting how things play out going forward because range won't be an issue for 'most' people, prices will come down across the board and charging stations will continue to become more prevalent. SO...what will drive EV sales in the future? I'd think PRICE, QUALITY (reliability) and STYLE...not range and charging stations.

Having said all of that...we are a VERY long ways away from EV becoming 'fully' mainstream. The grid isn't even close to being able to handle it. 1.4B cars on the road and roughly 10M are EV. Not even 1%! Whoa...It's going to take some SERIOUS updating of our grid to handle anything close to even 25%. Petroleum will be the major energy source for the rest of ALL of our lives. Everything you can see with your eyes used petroleum at some point in the production process...

EV has many advantages, but we're not even close to it being truly mainstream for 'most' people...Not everyone is buying a new $30-$50k car...Until the grid is updated and you can find one used for $5k or $10k...there won't ever be more EV's on the road than ICE. Someday there will be...but we're a LONG ways from that.
the tycan is objectively worse in basically every performance metric against the Tesla. It’s range is shit. You may have a point on fit and finish, although I hear things have improved a lot with the plaid S model.

you may be right, maybe others catch up. We’ll see. Similar claims were made about apple and the iPhone. They didn’t pan out imo for the iPhone. There is greater chance they could pan out against Tesla if the big car makes treated ev more seriously. Will be interesting to see, agreed.

agree on rest of your analysis. One thing some folks can take advantage is if you happen to be lucky enough to add solar. I’m building a new house and will. I love the independence that will bring and charging a car with it will make things a lot more efficient, I think. Although cost of batteries and panels is still pretty high.
 

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The grid concerns are melodramatic. It's like freaking out and saying air conditioning could never happen because the poor grid can't handle it. Historically, US electrical grid production has doubled every ~15 years. This requires no new technology, no new ideas, just some profit to justify accelerating capital investment. All super boring.

This is a completely separate concern from removing petroleum from the energy generation side. That is a big challenge, and probably won't be solved in my lifetime, but also one that doesn't have to be solved. Industrial scale energy generation MUCH MUCH more efficient than tiny personal ICE vehicles. Simply nuking coal would be a significant first step.
Opinions are all over the map on that concern. Some say it's not an issue while others say it will be...The one thing we know as a FACT is the current grid has a hard enough time keeping up WITHOUT mass EV's on the road...Ask Californians, New Yorkers and even Texans about electricity restrictions...Not that many people lives in those places though...;)

Time will tell...but given how inefficiently governments (state and fed) operate, I'm not holding my breath for a 'easy' transition. Btw, several article suggest that 20% of EV owners in CA went back to ICE because they got tired of waiting in lines to charge their cars...:unsure: One thing is for sure...EV is upon us...let's see how it goes in 10-20 years.
 

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Opinions are all over the map on that concern. Some say it's not an issue while others say it will be...The one thing we know as a FACT is the current grid has a hard enough time keeping up WITHOUT mass EV's on the road...Ask Californians, New Yorkers and even Texans about electricity restrictions...Not that many people lives in those places though...;)

Time will tell...but given how inefficiently governments (state and fed) operate, I'm not holding my breath for a 'easy' transition. Btw, several article suggest that 20% of EV owners in CA went back to ICE because they got tired of waiting in lines to charge their cars...:unsure: One thing is for sure...EV is upon us...let's see how it goes in 10-20 years.
In the US, what does the government have to do with it? Isn't the grid all privately owned and run? I know it is in Texas, hence the disaster last year. I suspect the countries that make the most efficient switch to EV will be those where the electricity infrastructure is far more controlled by the government.
 

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In the US, what does the government have to do with it? Isn't the grid all privately owned and run? I know it is in Texas, hence the disaster last year. I suspect the countries that make the most efficient switch to EV will be those where the electricity infrastructure is far more controlled by the government.
You make a good point. However, while much of it is private many states are still Gov't regulated regarding pricing and almost all of them operate with Gov't subsidies as well...so there's that. Their hands are still in the bowl. I can't think of single thing the Gov't does efficiently...So if the grid is struggling without their help, imagine if they did more, LOL.
 
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