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Discussion Starter · #1 · (Edited)
What's up people! In case you missed my last post, I run a site called Race Optimal - www.raceoptimal.com - where we use a genetic algorithm to perform the most advanced racing line optimization publicly available. I presented my simulation results for the P1 at Yas Marina in Abu Dhabi in this thread, http://www.mclarenlife.com/forums/mclaren-p1-f1/17681-simulating-p1-yas-marina.html Now the time has come to do the same for the Top Gear track, aka Dunsfold Park. In order to make as accurate a prediction as possible, I also modeled and simulated the current Top Gear record holder, the Pagani Huayra, as a benchmark. This involved sorting through power and downforce differences as well as a little tire controversy.

I won't spoil the simulated lap time by quoting it here, but needless to say it's faster than anything yet! People have been predicting everything from 1'11 to 1'07...how close did they come? Here's the post: http://www.raceoptimal.com/blog/mclaren-p1-pagani-huayra-at-top-gear


Pagani simulation:

 

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For a single timed lap, it isn't necessary for the car to start and finish at the same point on the start/finish line. Does your simulator show any improvement in lap time if the Huayra lines up for the start at the left edge of the track instead of the right?
 

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Discussion Starter · #3 ·
I didn't test that, but the difference would be on the order of hundredths, if anything. Speeds are relatively low at the beginning of the lap, and it's desirable to be on the outside to set up for the entry into Wilson. Disconnecting the lap from itself also means having to determine some kind of boundary conditions in order to ensure the car doesn't go flying off the track as soon as it crosses the start /finish line at the end of a lap. This point was something I considered, but its not impactful enough to warrant the extra effort, at least in this case.
 

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Nice work! I still think the P1 will go faster, given comments on this forum from members who said they easily saw 1:12 on the same circuit without even trying that hard. Can't wait to see the real result!
Cool but it was easier to stick a handful of cameras on the car when were there and have Chris jump in and give us a ride! :D

So after checking out the video, reading the article from the link provided, having my butt in the seat with Chris driving the car at a reasonably modest pace, explaining how the aero affects this car, and having Chris himself describe what he thinks is possible with fresh tires and nobody in the passenger seat... Sorry, but I'm betting that you will be disappointed with the words that were chosen to use in the article.

Still very VERY cool stuff!!
 

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Discussion Starter · #7 ·
Sorry, but I'm betting that you will be disappointed with the words that were chosen to use in the article.

Still very VERY cool stuff!!
Thanks mate :)

Please don't think I have anything personally against the P1 - I think it's amazing. The video reviews I saw were so cool that I wanted to take a crack at modeling it.


This is the fastest onboard lap I found, clocking at about 1'13.3. Add a three second penalty to account for the flying start. The driver also cuts corners before Chicago and at Hammerhead. Food for thought.

Should we start a betting pool or something? I've got a Pro Account at my site (free simulation videos at all tracks) for anyone that posts a prediction here that's closer than my value of 1'12.3.
 

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Thanks mate :)

Please don't think I have anything personally against the P1 - I think it's amazing. The video reviews I saw were so cool that I wanted to take a crack at modeling it.


This is the fastest onboard lap I found, clocking at about 1'13.3. Add a three second penalty to account for the flying start. The driver also cuts corners before Chicago and at Hammerhead. Food for thought.

Should we start a betting pool or something? I've got a Pro Account at my site (free simulation videos at all tracks) for anyone that posts a prediction here that's closer than my value of 1'12.3.
Ricky,that was not a serious Lap,i hope you didn't use it to map your computer.The car was just fuelled ,the tyres were pretty much shot as they had spent all day screaming round Dunsfold,it was 2 up,and Tim Mullen was not really trying as neither person had crash helmets on and he had a Very important passenger who he assured he would only drive at 8/10tenths.So after discussion I would easily guess well under 1.10.:D

P.S Can we do a deal on Royalties

You might also see a further video from April 2011 done in the same conditions in a 12c, that time was recorded at 1.27,so the delta between a passenger lap and a Balls out lap was some 11 seconds,i appreciate there is a law of diminishing returns,but I think you get my point ...........If you had used that video then,what would you have predicted the 12'c time to have been ? 1.22 ?
 

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Discussion Starter · #11 ·
Ricky,that was not a serious Lap,i hope you didn't use it to map your computer.The car was just fuelled ,the tyres were pretty much shot as they had spent all day screaming round Dunsfold,it was 2 up,and Tim Mullen was not really trying as neither person had crash helmets on and he had a Very important passenger who he assured he would only drive at 8/10tenths.So after discussion I would easily guess well under 1.10.:D

P.S Can we do a deal on Royalties

You might also see a further video from April 2011 done in the same conditions in a 12c, that time was recorded at 1.27,so the delta between a passenger lap and a Balls out lap was some 11 seconds,i appreciate there is a law of diminishing returns,but I think you get my point ...........If you had used that video then,what would you have predicted the 12'c time to have been ? 1.22 ?
No worries, my simulation was not based on any videos - only the data I was able to find about the Huayra and the McLaren.

So do you have a prediction? Let's get a hard number! :)

The real question is, what are the material advantages the P1 has that will result in a lap time 4 seconds faster than the Huayra, let alone 6 or 7 seconds? They use identical tires (the Huayra might even have had faster tires, see the post), both have a surplus of power for such a tight circuit....how is it going to make up that time? The McLaren has a certain horsepower and downforce advantage, and according to my analysis it's good for 1.5-2 seconds over the Pagani. I know I'm being stubborn but I'm just going with what the data says.

If you haven't yet, check out original P1 post where I simulate at Yas Marina. At the end I update with an onboard video of a decently hard lap that comes in three seconds slower than my prediction. OK so here's the question...what are some tracks where we do actually have solid lap times reported? Has McLaren or anyone else published any? I'll simulate there and then we'll really get apples to apples.

http://www.raceoptimal.com/blog/the-mclaren-p1-at-yas-marina/
 

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I think 1;09,given that the Pagani used cut slicks to beat the 12c time (original not 650)and every other timed lap have only put the pagani a couple of 10ths ahead of the 12c (not the 650) it goes without saying that the P1 is going to be several seconds faster than a 12c around any track,so its going to be several seconds faster than a Pagani,maybe simplistic but in race mode the P1 is a different animal to track mode,and even that is not comparable to the Pagani as its still alot quciker than a 12c in that mode
So in a nutshell a Pagani is not quicker on track than a 12c if they have the same tyres and driver,the Dunsfold lap was a scam,its needs comparing with the other laps it did on other tracks with real tyres and those are almost identical :)
Plus there are no lap times yet for the P1
 

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I think 1;09,given that the Pagani used cut slicks to beat the 12c time (original not 650)and every other timed lap have only put the pagani a couple of 10ths ahead of the 12c (not the 650) it goes without saying that the P1 is going to be several seconds faster than a 12c around any track,so its going to be several seconds faster than a Pagani,maybe simplistic but in race mode the P1 is a different animal to track mode,and even that is not comparable to the Pagani as its still alot quciker than a 12c in that mode
So in a nutshell a Pagani is not quicker on track than a 12c if they have the same tyres and driver,the Dunsfold lap was a scam,its needs comparing with the other laps it did on other tracks with real tyres and those are almost identical :)
Plus there are no lap times yet for the P1
Totally agree Andy! Some of us know...

Being lucky enough to have driven both the Huayra and the P1, I will say they are both amazing... both sick with power... both surprisingly easy to drive. However... One has an upper performance limit that just keeps going.

This is why I think Kris has laid down his challenge... Having his Huayra for the last month, he has gotten used to its amazing performance and it seems to be just getting faster and faster. Maybe he has been able to push it to 90% his limit and the car might have also been at 90% of its limit.

So, all I know is that with cameras rolling, Chris Goodwin at the wheel, having a full conversation with me while ripping up the top gear track, one hand on the wheel at times while he was talking with the other, describing why the car made it through that turn when I was positively sure we were headed for the grass! Sliding through turns and just having fun while saying that with fresh tires and no passenger what he felt the lap time would be. :p

Don't try to time this lap in the video, Its been spliced together for effect and not time on purpose using several laps from the day.

 

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Discussion Starter · #17 ·
That's a 1'09 for andy c and R8Pro, I'll let that count as up to 1'09.9

1'12 from Tuxiemama

Anybody else? :) The guys over on reddit say it won't go below 1'13...

In looking at the simulation I see there is a lift at follow-through apex but when I was there with Chris I recall him saying he is flat out through there?
He may or may not be, his entry speed may also be different..honestly you shouldn't look at the simulation as being an exact model for real life, it's just an approximation. Actual brake and throttle inputs could vary significantly. The lap time as a whole, though, should be a pretty good estimation. According to me.
 

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That's a 1'09 for andy c and R8Pro, I'll let that count as up to 1'09.9

1'12 from Tuxiemama

Anybody else? :) The guys over on reddit say it won't go below 1'13...



He may or may not be, his entry speed may also be different..honestly you shouldn't look at the simulation as being an exact model for real life, it's just an approximation. Actual brake and throttle inputs could vary significantly. The lap time as a whole, though, should be a pretty good estimation. According to me.
The 12c proved to be slower in real life than it was on the top gear track. So I would say that if we can say that 1:12-13 is a good guess then 1:09 seems doable also. I say around 1:09. ...That is if they run it on the new Pirelli Trofeos.
 
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