McLaren Life banner

581 - 600 of 632 Posts

·
Registered
Joined
·
88 Posts
My business is booming.

You two should short the market with the certain knowledge of what is going to happen in the future.
In fairness, there’s winners and losers through this pandemic. I am coming off the two best months of my business life. At the same time, I understand that when the stimulus/cheese recedes, the CRE armageddon begins, and many of the 40M unemployed are not able to secure jobs, my business will probably be affected. Who can be sure, but I at least see some storm clouds.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
200 Posts
This week I had a conversation about exotic car sales with an O'Gara manager (one of the biggest dealers in LA). She stated that they were low on inventory, actively extending their brands to different locations (just opened a new Lambo dealer last week), and are generally experiencing great business at the moment.

"Why do you think that is?" I asked, and she replied that their high-end customers are taking fewer vacations and buying more luxury cars to help supplement the missing fun. :)
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
49 Posts
I am not a "high-end" customer but that is definitely the case for me. Bored to death with no travel for work or personal reasons. Just burnt some money to move from a Porsche 911 TTS to Mc 720s :(
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,800 Posts
My business is booming.

You two should short the market with the certain knowledge of what is going to happen in the future.
What happens to one business isn't indicative of anything as a whole. My business was growing massively in 2007, 2008, 2009 whereas the global economy was devastated.

I don't know what will happen, but it's safe to say that the $600 unemployment benefits, stimulus checks, debt deferment, etc had a massive effect what actually happened these last 3 months. Consider that JPM, BAC, etc are setting aside 10s of billions for loan losses even though they haven't actually seen any losses yet.

I'm inclined to agree with Jamie Dimon or Brian Moynihan that if you have 16% unemployment but no material change in charge-offs, it's not because the charge-offs aren't coming. It's because you'd just delayed them.

There are three possibilities IMO:

1. Most will suddenly just get back to work in the next 30-60 days as the find that the UE benefits no longer make unemployment better than employment.
2. All the jobs lost are mainly low wage and the effect will be much less than if they were lost broadly across all industries and pay grades.
3. The job losses are broad, many jobs have been lost permanently, and the real pain begins over the next 30-60 days as the stimulus is no longer enough to keep the economy/debt afloat.

I'm inclined to think it's somewhere between 2 and 3, and I believe the market will wake up to the reality of it.

Remember, AAPL trades today at 2x the valuation it did in 2018 even though revenue isn't any higher. It's almost pure multiple expansion. Just people paying more for the stock for the sake of paying more.

And let's not forget only a handful of names are pulling up the entire market.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,243 Posts
There is a disconnect on car forums on this topic. People want to talk about the greater economy and the short term, mid-term and long term impacts.

Others want to talk specific to exotic car market. The exotic car market has thrived, the luxury car market has thrived. Every re-seller, broker, sales person is saying the same thing and inventory levels and the amount of cars people are buying/selling in this space has increased. Manufacturers and specifically Mclaren will take a long time to ramp up again to pre-covid car deliveries. In the man time, the amount of cars for sale has shrunk. People coming off leases have very little to get into and I don't see that changing in the future. Long lines for 765 allocations, people taking deliveries of speedtails, etc. The people who did get good deals initially are going to be in those cars for a very long time or won't be able to stay in later because if they bought cars dependent on the initial good deals, well they aren't there anymore and probably won't be there again for quite some time.

Mac's are rebounding (trade, buy in values, wholesale). It is not so kind to the Ferrari side of things. Wholesalers/re-sellers who are buying cars outright are really low balling but selling higher. Pista spread between buy and sell is in the $70K range (dealers/wholesalers buying for $50K below MSRP and selling around MSRP or a little above).

I bought a Senna yesterday. The person selling bought a P1. There is many, many such examples of this in the exotic car space in the last few months.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,800 Posts
There is a disconnect on car forums on this topic. People want to talk about the greater economy and the short term, mid-term and long term impacts.

Others want to talk specific to exotic car market. The exotic car market has thrived, the luxury car market has thrived. Every re-seller, broker, sales person is saying the same thing and inventory levels and the amount of cars people are buying/selling in this space has increased. Manufacturers and specifically Mclaren will take a long time to ramp up again to pre-covid car deliveries. In the man time, the amount of cars for sale has shrunk. People coming off leases have very little to get into and I don't see that changing in the future. Long lines for 765 allocations, people taking deliveries of speedtails, etc. The people who did get good deals initially are going to be in those cars for a very long time or won't be able to stay in later because if they bought cars dependent on the initial good deals, well they aren't there anymore and probably won't be there again for quite some time.

Mac's are rebounding (trade, buy in values, wholesale). It is not so kind to the Ferrari side of things. Wholesalers/re-sellers who are buying cars outright are really low balling but selling higher. Pista spread between buy and sell is in the $70K range (dealers/wholesalers buying for $50K below MSRP and selling around MSRP or a little above).

I bought a Senna yesterday. The person selling bought a P1. There is many, many such examples of this in the exotic car space in the last few months.
I don't know that they are rebounding so much as just didn't really drop much. I've been looking regularly the last few months at 720S and it seems like all the same cars at the same prices. The asking prices definitely didn't increase from what I can tell, but they also didn't crater.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
639 Posts
A lot of cars that have been sold are not being updated on several third party websites to give the impression there are a lot of cars available.
When you actually go to the website of the dealer it tell a different story.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
386 Posts
You bought another Senna?
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
87 Posts
What happens to one business isn't indicative of anything as a whole. My business was growing massively in 2007, 2008, 2009 whereas the global economy was devastated.

I don't know what will happen, but it's safe to say that the $600 unemployment benefits, stimulus checks, debt deferment, etc had a massive effect what actually happened these last 3 months. Consider that JPM, BAC, etc are setting aside 10s of billions for loan losses even though they haven't actually seen any losses yet.

I'm inclined to agree with Jamie Dimon or Brian Moynihan that if you have 16% unemployment but no material change in charge-offs, it's not because the charge-offs aren't coming. It's because you'd just delayed them.

There are three possibilities IMO:

1. Most will suddenly just get back to work in the next 30-60 days as the find that the UE benefits no longer make unemployment better than employment.
2. All the jobs lost are mainly low wage and the effect will be much less than if they were lost broadly across all industries and pay grades.
3. The job losses are broad, many jobs have been lost permanently, and the real pain begins over the next 30-60 days as the stimulus is no longer enough to keep the economy/debt afloat.

I'm inclined to think it's somewhere between 2 and 3, and I believe the market will wake up to the reality of it.

Remember, AAPL trades today at 2x the valuation it did in 2018 even though revenue isn't any higher. It's almost pure multiple expansion. Just people paying more for the stock for the sake of paying more.

And let's not forget only a handful of names are pulling up the entire market.
I agree somewhat with your analysis. The market is being propped up by six or seven Tech stocks. Although the stock market is touted as proof of things being ok the millions of people that are unemployed waiting for $600, or $400 or whatever they might get could care less about the market. I think they're probably concerned about having a roof over their head and some food on the table. The months ahead will be interesting.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
639 Posts
I agree somewhat with your analysis. The market is being propped up by six or seven Tech stocks. Although the stock market is touted as proof of things being ok the millions of people that are unemployed waiting for $600, or $400 or whatever they might get could care less about the market. I think they're probably concerned about having a roof over their head and some food on the table. The months ahead will be interesting.
Add to this an upcoming presidential election that will divide the country no matter who wins
Yes, the months ahead will be interesting
 

·
Registered
McLaren 720S spider, 2020. Spark.
Joined
·
445 Posts
We have never been more divided. I judge a president by their ability to unify the people, to bring us across a divide for the greater good. Trump has forged his success by just exactly the opposite, capitalizing on divisiveness. We (the US) are so far from being able to agree on anything. If one side could cure cancer, the other would not want it to happen rather them have credit for it. No exaggeration.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
325 Posts
I don’t believe the country is nearly as divided as the media would have people believe. Unfortunately, they sensationalize everything and show the extreme ends of both sides of the political spectrum and make people believe that’s how everyone thinks.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
176 Posts
We have never been more divided. I judge a president by their ability to unify the people, to bring us across a divide for the greater good. Trump has forged his success by just exactly the opposite, capitalizing on divisiveness. We (the US) are so far from being able to agree on anything. If one side could cure cancer, the other would not want it to happen rather them have credit for it. No exaggeration.
Truth. We are more divided than ever. Maybe that's what the Russians wanted. The only thing that can bring us together is if we get invaded by aliens.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
222 Posts
Truth. We are more divided than ever. Maybe that's what the Russians wanted. The only thing that can bring us together is if we get invaded by aliens.
That is sort of happening but still no unity. Just look at the ridiculous responses to the pandemic including denial, Bill Gates conspiracies, due to 5G etc. Some people just want to be contrarian or say anything to oppose their political rivals regardless of lack of fact or evidence.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,800 Posts
Yup, home improvement has shocking seen no slow down. In the middle of some myself and they say they're plenty busy and have had to play catch up as well.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
206 Posts
Yup, home improvement has shocking seen no slow down. In the middle of some myself and they say they're plenty busy and have had to play catch up as well.
We supply the cabinet industry nationally. My thinking is simple. People are home saving on gas, lunch, clothes and Starbucks. Planning a scaled back vacation and are looking at all the things wrong with their house.
 
581 - 600 of 632 Posts
Top