I'm not sure I follow. How has the "cheap" money flowed through to car dealers? Auto loan rates haven't really gone down, lending has actually gotten tighter, and many manufacturers were already offering low-to-zero financing on many models.This is anecdotal, but I recently bought a new 2020 Ram truck. GSM of the dealership is a good personal friend and we had a few lengthy conversations about how COVID-19 has affected the market. In summary the first 30 days (march through first week of April) was brutal. No sales. The "cheap" money from banks however has literally allowed him to sell most of his good inventory. Another friend of mine that runs a used car dealership has also said the same. Strong sales are back. Obviously a $70K truck isnt the same market as a $350K supercar, but I do think that the general trend is that the Mainheim auction values were artificially low. The deals may be there for now, but it doesnt look to be a permanent fixture or an indelible mark on the value of our cars.
on a somewhat related note, I read an article sayting that McLaren was putting up MTC and their Mac collection as collateral for debt. If McLaren becomes insolvent, that could spell huge problems for our values.
I'd say at best it's just pent up demand and that once it's met, it will go back down again. There's just no logical reason for car sales to be good right now since almost the entire world is in a worse position financially and interest rates associated with those types of purchases haven't really changed much.
Brian Moynihan just did an interview and said this month's consumer spending is about 2-4% lower than last year, which is crazy good, all things considered. But he said the question is whether that pent up spending goes back down or not like it did in China. The reality is that a shit load of people are unemployed right now and those benefits won't last forever. If jobs don't come back very quickly and everyone doesn't get back to work asap, it's simply not possible for demand for cars to be good.