Again, thank you.As someone who is helping in the surge planning for millions of patients, which includes working with Stanford (where I practiced for years), the modeling Stanford and we accept is not as extreme as the UK model that came out of the Imperial College of London predicting millions of patients dead. However, it's not as rosy as Levitt's hypothesis either (his is not even a mathematically based model.) The best model seems to be the one released on the 26th by the University of Washington - which takes into account a lower case fatality rate and the use of death as a better data point than cases (which is variable depending on testing availability). It also takes into account the mandated social distancing that has happened and takes into account individual variability without relegating to brownian motion of individuals (what many models use).
It also looks at the actual number of resources per the American Hospital Association in terms of hospital and ICU beds. It even does this per state and predicts peak date. California doesn't look as horrible as initially predicted. New York is as bad as we thought.
Here's the link: IHME | COVID-19 Projections
Long story short... it won't be the apocalypse. But don't be surprised if 85,000 people die in 4 months.
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