No Longer the New New Thing - McLaren Life
 9Likes
Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
post #1 of 23 Old 06-06-2019, 10:01 PM Thread Starter
InnerCircle
Owner
 
Boxer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: UK & Texas
Posts: 2,453
No Longer the New New Thing

Just posted a new blog on No Longer the New New Thing:

https://karenable.com/no-longer-the-new-new-thing/

Comments?
Attached Images
 
Boxer is offline  
Sponsored Links
Advertisement
 
post #2 of 23 Old 06-06-2019, 10:13 PM
Owner
 
Join Date: Jun 2017
Location: South Dakota
Posts: 1,862
The problem with the first gen hypercars is as you had mentioned the battery cost are pretty crazy and they are all nearing that time or they probably will need replacement someone soon. Which will be a good chunk of change.
dvandentop is online now  
post #3 of 23 Old 06-06-2019, 11:23 PM
Spec 570 Spider soon
 
Join Date: Apr 2018
Location: St. Louis, MO USA
Posts: 331
Another great read, Boxer!

I look forward to seeing your post that a new SSO article is up & ready for perusal! Thank you...

An adage from the misspent youth of my skydiving days: "Slow is smooth, and smooth is fast..."
Bob_D is offline  
 
post #4 of 23 Old 06-07-2019, 03:49 AM
2012 MP4-12C
Owner
 
ZombiePhysicist's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2014
Posts: 7,936
Garage
Really great article Boxer. These are treacherous waters for "investors" so you better love this stuff.
ZombiePhysicist is online now  
post #5 of 23 Old 06-07-2019, 11:39 AM Thread Starter
InnerCircle
Owner
 
Boxer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: UK & Texas
Posts: 2,453
Quote:
Originally Posted by ZombiePhysicist View Post
Really great article Boxer. These are treacherous waters for "investors" so you better love this stuff.
Thanks and this is why you should always by the car you love and enjoy it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob_D View Post
Another great read, Boxer!

I look forward to seeing your post that a new SSO article is up & ready for perusal! Thank you...
Much appreciated.
Boxer is offline  
post #6 of 23 Old 06-07-2019, 02:10 PM
Owner
 
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 6,609
Another great post boxer, I think the current situation is impacted by three main paradigms:

1. Technology (as you say)
2. Demographics/Generational
3. Supply/Demand

Won't spend much time on tech, as I basically agree with your assertions. Although, I would place slightly less emphasis on tech, as a reason for the current softening market.

Demographics/Generational factors:

I feel as though there is a natural 25-35 year cycle for supercar desirability. The poster on the teenage boy/girl's wall becomes the object of desire and nostalgia once one has enough cash to buy, etc. In between then, many classics go through periods where they are cheap and not really valued. What is interesting is that this is still a very recent phenomenon; supercars haven't existing for very long in the grand scheme of things. Does somebody in their mid-40's today remember what supercar came before the Countach, Testarossa or whatever poster was on their bedroom wall (remember "Justification for Higher Education")? Moreover, do they care? Will McLaren F1's still be valuable when the high net worth population doesn't even know what it is? I suppose that has ramifications for our heirs, not us.

Supply/Demand:

Damn, a lot of exotic and sports cars were pumped out in the last decade. Rather than placing blame, I prefer to think of it as just a reality and natural consequence of any market bubble. But umpteen special editions of basically the same car (maybe Lambo and Porsche started it, but Mac took it to another level). Emerging markets like China and high stock markets providing the fuel for the frenzy, of course. But as the cliche goes, a rising tide floats all boats and vice versa. So even Enzo prices will retreat. Still, I wonder if the soft supercar market is a harbinger. I remember seeing F40s at CAD $400K asking, during the financial crisis. I passed up a Carrera GT for CAD $325K. Doh!

The holy trinity are unique in that they are truly hybrids, not only in powertrain design but they mix, or span, the two underlying eras of the automobile. Before EVs and after EVs. Does that make them more, or less relevant in the long term? I don't know. I could make an argument either way. But the P1's battery replacement costs are a problem, I agree.
francis_p likes this.
6th element is offline  
post #7 of 23 Old 06-07-2019, 07:55 PM Thread Starter
InnerCircle
Owner
 
Boxer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: UK & Texas
Posts: 2,453
Quote:
Originally Posted by 6th element View Post
Another great post boxer, I think the current situation is impacted by three main paradigms:

1. Technology (as you say)
2. Demographics/Generational
3. Supply/Demand

Won't spend much time on tech, as I basically agree with your assertions. Although, I would place slightly less emphasis on tech, as a reason for the current softening market.

Demographics/Generational factors:

I feel as though there is a natural 25-35 year cycle for supercar desirability. The poster on the teenage boy/girl's wall becomes the object of desire and nostalgia once one has enough cash to buy, etc. In between then, many classics go through periods where they are cheap and not really valued. What is interesting is that this is still a very recent phenomenon; supercars haven't existing for very long in the grand scheme of things. Does somebody in their mid-40's today remember what supercar came before the Countach, Testarossa or whatever poster was on their bedroom wall (remember "Justification for Higher Education")? Moreover, do they care? Will McLaren F1's still be valuable when the high net worth population doesn't even know what it is? I suppose that has ramifications for our heirs, not us.

Supply/Demand:

Damn, a lot of exotic and sports cars were pumped out in the last decade. Rather than placing blame, I prefer to think of it as just a reality and natural consequence of any market bubble. But umpteen special editions of basically the same car (maybe Lambo and Porsche started it, but Mac took it to another level). Emerging markets like China and high stock markets providing the fuel for the frenzy, of course. But as the cliche goes, a rising tide floats all boats and vice versa. So even Enzo prices will retreat. Still, I wonder if the soft supercar market is a harbinger. I remember seeing F40s at CAD $400K asking, during the financial crisis. I passed up a Carrera GT for CAD $325K. Doh!

The holy trinity are unique in that they are truly hybrids, not only in powertrain design but they mix, or span, the two underlying eras of the automobile. Before EVs and after EVs. Does that make them more, or less relevant in the long term? I don't know. I could make an argument either way. But the P1's battery replacement costs are a problem, I agree.

The point on demographics is a really interesting one. 20 years form now will the early Teslas be the in in thing to collect for that generation?

Last edited by Boxer; 06-07-2019 at 07:58 PM.
Boxer is offline  
post #8 of 23 Old 06-07-2019, 08:19 PM
Owner
 
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 6,609
Quote:
Originally Posted by Boxer View Post
The point on demographics is a really interesting one. 20 years form now will the early Teslas be the in in thing to collect for that generation?
Could well be. Although if self titled marketing gurus are to be believed, they won't really be into collecting things, but still seeking out "experiences". I don't believe the gurus; I think once social media is no longer "a thing", we'll realize that they are no different than any other generation.

I could see a sub-culture of people that collect early teslas the same way that some people collect 1st gen iphones or old-school typewriters, though...

Do young kids really have Tesla posters on their wall? I guess now it is phone screen savers/background images. i.e. a picture of an iPad on their iPad... hah!
Bob_D likes this.
6th element is offline  
post #9 of 23 Old 06-07-2019, 09:56 PM Thread Starter
InnerCircle
Owner
 
Boxer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: UK & Texas
Posts: 2,453
Quote:
Originally Posted by 6th element View Post
Could well be. Although if self titled marketing gurus are to be believed, they won't really be into collecting things, but still seeking out "experiences". I don't believe the gurus; I think once social media is no longer "a thing", we'll realize that they are no different than any other generation.

I could see a sub-culture of people that collect early teslas the same way that some people collect 1st gen iphones or old-school typewriters, though...

Do young kids really have Tesla posters on their wall? I guess now it is phone screen savers/background images. i.e. a picture of an iPad on their iPad... hah!
I do believe the ‘hunter’ ‘gather’ instinct is hard wired into all of us. Once they are done ‘hunting’ experiences they will start gather collectibles/assets.

....it’s actually a picture of their iPhone on the iPad with an Xbox in the background
Boxer is offline  
post #10 of 23 Old 06-07-2019, 10:03 PM
 
Join Date: Jun 2019
Posts: 1
Very enlightening post. Thank you for the quality content.
Emmanuel is offline  
post #11 of 23 Old 06-07-2019, 10:07 PM
Owner
 
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 6,609
I guess I'm old now, but I still hunt "experiences". Best one I've found is taking a V10 or V12 to redline at 8am Sunday morning.
6th element is offline  
post #12 of 23 Old 06-07-2019, 10:12 PM Thread Starter
InnerCircle
Owner
 
Boxer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: UK & Texas
Posts: 2,453
Quote:
Originally Posted by 6th element View Post
I guess I'm old now, but I still hunt "experiences". Best one I've found is taking a V10 or V12 to redline at 8am Sunday morning.
Sounds like you took your gathered collectible and hunted an experience
Boxer is offline  
post #13 of 23 Old 06-07-2019, 10:13 PM Thread Starter
InnerCircle
Owner
 
Boxer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: UK & Texas
Posts: 2,453
Quote:
Originally Posted by Emmanuel View Post
Very enlightening post. Thank you for the quality content.
Appreciated
Boxer is offline  
post #14 of 23 Old 06-07-2019, 10:25 PM
Owner
 
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 6,609
Quote:
Originally Posted by Boxer View Post
Sounds like you took your gathered collectible and hunted an experience
I like to think I always had the experience in mind!

I wonder if cars of any kind will simply cease being collectible. Does anybody still collect postage stamps? Or coins?
6th element is offline  
post #15 of 23 Old 06-07-2019, 10:27 PM
InnerCircle
Owner
 
Join Date: Oct 2015
Posts: 3,330
A big part of the problem with the recent generation of supercars/hypercars is that they are mostly about the latest technology, and the latest technology ages very quickly. The cars with substantial appreciation potential are in that position because they have a place in history, they are beautiful, and/or they can be stretched and can challenge their drivers somewhere other than on a racing track.
Buying the latest thing merely because it is the latest thing has always been a loser's game, and always will be.
New Britain is offline  
Reply

Quick Reply
Message:
Options

Register Now



In order to be able to post messages on the McLaren Life forums, you must first register.
Please enter your desired user name, your email address and other required details in the form below.

User Name:
Password
Please enter a password for your user account. Note that passwords are case-sensitive.

Password:


Confirm Password:
Email Address
Please enter a valid email address for yourself.

Email Address:
OR

Log-in










Thread Tools Search this Thread
Show Printable Version Show Printable Version
Email this Page Email this Page
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes
Linear Mode Linear Mode



Posting Rules  
You may post new threads
You may post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On

 
For the best viewing experience please update your browser to Google Chrome